A 56 percent chance of fratricidal war is a very high percentage, taking into account that the parameters of that type of reports – applied successfully in 161 countries, between 1960 and 1999 – indicate that with 42 percent, already the objective conditions that will trigger the battle sooner or later are met. The text stresses, in societies such as the Bolivian, where it split ethnic is moderate, divided by 30% Quechua, 30 per cent mestizo, 25 per cent Aymara and 15 percent white, increases the risk of confrontation. From the complex situation, the countries of the region and, in particular the neighbouring, come with great concern what is happening there and how would affect them that virulent scenario, which is the least desired. An internecine war in the center of South America, in addition to the political wear and tear to the region and for the Brazil energy chaos, would mean that the Argentina would receive nearly a million Bolivian refugees, with an annual expenditure for the Republic rioplatense between 438 and 730 million dollars annually. The figures projected a minimum of 600 thousand and more than a million of potential expatriates. Even it is estimated, that a conflict of that proportion, could cost to Bolivia nearly 24 billion dollars. Criticized statements by the Bolivian Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera in the absence of President Morales-, summoning the Indians defense armed Socialist measures taken by his Government, suggest an initial shock in the short or medium term, and shows that Evo is acting more cautiously than his illustrated companion. original author and source of the article.